Obama’s Unserious Sanctions

March 18 | Posted by mrossol | American Thought, Crimea, Obama

The Left will never call Obama out on this…
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President Obama and the European Union announced their sanctions response to Vladimir Putin’s rolling conquest of Crimea on Monday, and the most accurate assessment came from financial markets. Moscow’s stock exchange, which has been battered for two weeks in fear of Western sanctions, rose 3.7%. Congratulations, Mr. President. You gave the Kremlin a sanctions relief rally.

Mr. Obama had promised “consequences” if Mr. Putin followed through with the Crimean referendum, so we doubt even the Russian President thought the West’s actions would be this weak. Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny tweeted from Moscow that the sanctions list was “of course, funny.” He added that “Obama only delighted all our crooks and encouraged them.”

That turned out to be literally true when one of the Russians on Mr. Obama’s list, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, tweeted, “It seems to me that some kind of joker wrote the U.S. president’s order :)” LOL.  The U.S. list included a mere seven Russians and four Ukrainians who the President cited for having threatened “Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” The list included only two Russians of note: Mr. Putin’s political fixer Vladislav Surkov, and Sergei Glazyev, a nationalist who handles the Kiev portfolio at the Kremlin. The other five are lawmakers with little influence.

The most notable names were those not on the list. Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu, Mr. Putin’s chief of staff Sergei Ivanov and Alexander Bortnikov, who runs the FSB (formerly the KGB), belong to the circle of hard-liners on the Russian national security council, where the decisions on Ukraine are taken. Mr. Shoygu’s department has deployed some 20,000 men to Crimea. Mr. Bortnikov’s charges are running special operations in eastern Ukraine to whip up separatist demonstrators.

Mr. Putin’s moneymen are also absent. Alexei Miller is a close ally who runs Gazprom OGZPY +3.65% and can squeeze Ukraine on gas supplies and prices. Igor Sechin, another crony, runs the oil giant Rosneft. Gennady Timchenko became an energy billionaire after Mr. Putin took over the Kremlin. These men have assets and business in Europe and America, and limiting their ability to invest or travel would bring financial pain to the Putin inner circle.

Mr. Obama called his sanctions list a “calibrated” response [my, how strategic] and hinted that more were possible if Mr. Putin escalates his campaign against Ukraine. But this is the same diplomatic gradualism that caused Mr. Obama to delay any sanctions after the initial Crimea invasion in hope that Mr. Putin would reconsider. That didn’t work and neither will this.

Coming after so many warnings from the White House, the sanctions are more likely to reconfirm the Russian strongman’s view that Mr. Obama has no stomach for a confrontation. And sure enough, within hours of the White House action, Mr. Putin signed a decree recognizing Crimea’s independence from Ukraine. Next up may be a path to formal annexation of the peninsula, though Mr. Putin may decide he doesn’t need to invade eastern Ukraine if he can achieve political control by other means. But watch out, Moldova.

Sanctions are an imperfect foreign-policy tool, but Russia’s weak economy and dependence on Western capital markets give the U.S. and Europe some leverage if they are serious. The sanctions Mr. Obama announced are worse than useless because their main impact will be to make America look weak.

Obama’s Unserious Sanctions – WSJ.com.

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